Counting Every Blade: Grass growth, Livestock and Drought

Grass growth this year (blue) compared to 2022 (purple)

Three Pools has been part of the Welsh Pasture Project since 2021. This has involved measuring the grass most weeks during the growing season (March - November). The grass is measured using a tool called a plate meter, which gives an estimate of the Kg of Dry Matter per hectare (kgDM/ha) in each field. Comparing weekly measurements gives us an indication of the growth rates of the grass.

We can use the measurements of how much grass we have, how fast it is growing, plus an estimate of the feed demand of the livestock to plan and budget how much grass is available to eat, and so how fast to rotate them around the farm. When the grass is growing fast, it feels great, when it stops growing, it gets a bit concerning. 

This year’s drought has been the most challenging we’ve experienced. Grass growth conditions have been worse than in 2022 - a drought labelled the worst for 500 years. The graph above shows how the grass growth has dropped to virtually zero much earlier than it did in 2022. The reason being that this drought started earlier in the spring, so we never got the spring grass growth. In 2022 the drought started later, so we had that spring grass as a stockpile to go into. 

Despite the stats on grass growth being worse this year, we’ve so far managed to survive it better than in 2022 because we learnt some lessons from that year. At that stage, we had been working to increase stocking levels since moving to the farm in 2017. When the grass stopped growing due to drought, we were in a position where our feed demand was too high. 

We now operate with fewer animals on farm, so our demand is lower. We stockpile more grass to eat when grass growth slows. Proportionally, we have more cows than sheep now. Cows are much easier to manage in a rotational system - both because they respect electric fences and because they can do better on longer stockpiled grass. 

While the reduced level of livestock means we are less well-placed to benefit if it’s a really good year for grass growth, it means we are more resilient to when it’s a bad year. We don’t buy in stock - we only breed our own livestock as we have a closed system for biosecurity control, meaning increasing stocking levels takes time. We also slaughter all our animals for our own meat business due to the fact that native breeds like ours wouldn’t do as well in the market. Collectively, this means we are less able to be agile about how many animals we have on the farm.

This summer we have taken steps to reduce our feed demand by sending animals away for slaughter, plus we have weaned the lambs off the ewes early. We have also started feeding hay to some groups of stock to further slow how much grass they need to eat. That we are having to feed hay to livestock mid-summer is concerning, and hopefully not a sign of how the climate will chnage. We have some fields that we have rested for 50-60 days with no sign of any life in the grass. 

Speaking with our local contractor, he says that hay yields this year are about a third of what would usually be expected from a field. So, if farmers are having to feed hay mid-summer, as well as plan for winter feed, and hay yields are well down, the costs are going up. This makes for a challenging year for livestock production. We can expect to see meat prices continue to rise. As a result, farmers may decide to keep fewer animals for next year due to the cost of keeping them over winter, meaning production levels next year may be down. 

I have a deepening respect for farmers and how they are able to run businesses that are so connected to the weather. Farming is an art form. The industry is going through immense changes at the moment due to subsidy changes, tax changes, and increasingly, the weather is getting more erratic. Designing resilient systems is more important than ever. Be prepared that food is going to cost more in the future.